Spanish Grand Prix

Round 14 · 2026

Madrid

v 0.3.008 Jun 2026, 13:10 UTC

Based onHistoryRegulations

Max Verstappen is the model's pick at 35.0% (80% CI 34.2–35.7%) for Spanish Grand Prix.

Top 10 drivers

bars are win / podium / points probabilitiesWeekend analytics →

1
VERMax Verstappen
Red Bull RacingLOW
WIN
35.0%
POD
71.7%
PTS
93.7%
Why · 3 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 1.00 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.90, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.88 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
2
LECCharles Leclerc
FerrariLOW
WIN
10.3%
POD
32.9%
PTS
82.2%
Why · 4 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.65 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.75, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.75 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.12
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 11.8% (team × circuit).
3
RUSGeorge Russell
MercedesLOW
WIN
9.6%
POD
33.1%
PTS
85.4%
Why · 3 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.64 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.77, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.85 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
4
NORLando Norris
McLarenLOW
WIN
7.3%
POD
22.9%
PTS
69.4%
Why · 4 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.61 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.78, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.93 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.20
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 22.9% (team × circuit).
5
GASPierre Gasly
AlpineLOW
WIN
5.5%
POD
18.8%
PTS
62.7%
Why · 4 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.60 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.42, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.43 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.20
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 25.0% (team × circuit).
6
ALBAlexander Albon
WilliamsLOW
WIN
4.3%
POD
14.7%
PTS
59.8%
Why · 4 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.55 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.53, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.59 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.20
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 25.0% (team × circuit).
7
ALOFernando Alonso
Aston MartinLOW
WIN
3.7%
POD
14.1%
PTS
62.6%
Why · 3 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.57 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.44, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.39 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
8
SAICarlos Sainz
WilliamsLOW
WIN
3.4%
POD
12.0%
PTS
52.5%
Why · 4 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.50 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.68, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.59 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.20
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 25.0% (team × circuit).
9
COLFranco Colapinto
AlpineLOW
WIN
2.9%
POD
10.7%
PTS
47.4%
Why · 3 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.47 (1.0 = top of grid).
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.43 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.
- DNF riskw 0.20
  Per-race DNF probability ≈ 25.0% (team × circuit).
10
OCOEsteban Ocon
Haas F1 TeamLOW
WIN
2.6%
POD
9.3%
PTS
47.6%
Why · 3 factors
- Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58
  Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.47 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.
- Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07
  Recency-weighted finish score 0.50, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.
- Chassis at this circuitw 0.35
  Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.44 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

Most-likely podium combinations

approximate · 1st-2nd-3rd

1
P1VER·P2RUS·P3LEC
3.49%
2
P1VER·P2LEC·P3RUS
3.48%
3
P1VER·P2RUS·P3NOR
2.43%
4
P1VER·P2LEC·P3NOR
2.41%
5
P1VER·P2NOR·P3RUS
2.18%
6
P1VER·P2NOR·P3LEC
2.17%
7
P1VER·P2RUS·P3GAS
1.99%
8
P1VER·P2LEC·P3GAS
1.98%
9
P1VER·P2GAS·P3RUS
1.72%
10
P1VER·P2GAS·P3LEC
1.71%

Methodology

Probabilities come from a layered ensemble: historical base rates per circuit, current constructor form (rolling 6 races), qualifying outcome, and a weather adjustment. Confidence intervals are 80% credible bands from the win-share posterior. See 0.3.0 for the active weights.