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F1

Las Vegas Grand Prix

Round 20 · 2026
Las Vegas
v 0.3.012 Jun 2026, 18:11 UTC
Based onHistoryRegulations
Max Verstappen is the model's pick at 35.5% (80% CI 34.7–36.3%) for Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Top 10 drivers

bars are win / podium / points probabilitiesWeekend analytics →
  1. 1Max Verstappen
    VERMax Verstappen
    Red Bull RacingRed Bull RacingLOW
    WIN
    35.5%
    POD
    69.7%
    PTS
    84.8%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 1.00 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.93, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.95 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

  2. 2George Russell
    RUSGeorge Russell
    MercedesMercedesLOW
    WIN
    10.6%
    POD
    35.2%
    PTS
    75.9%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.64 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.86, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.94 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 23.9% (team × circuit).

  3. 3Charles Leclerc
    LECCharles Leclerc
    FerrariFerrariLOW
    WIN
    10.5%
    POD
    31.1%
    PTS
    68.6%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.65 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.84, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.86 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 29.4% (team × circuit).

  4. 4Pierre Gasly
    GASPierre Gasly
    AlpineAlpineLOW
    WIN
    4.8%
    POD
    17.3%
    PTS
    52.7%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.60 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.28, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.36 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  5. 5Lando Norris
    NORLando Norris
    McLarenMcLarenLOW
    WIN
    4.7%
    POD
    15.8%
    PTS
    53.7%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.61 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.28, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.26 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  6. 6Fernando Alonso
    ALOFernando Alonso
    Aston MartinAston MartinLOW
    WIN
    4.2%
    POD
    16.7%
    PTS
    66.8%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.57 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.51, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.50 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

  7. 7Carlos Sainz
    SAICarlos Sainz
    WilliamsWilliamsLOW
    WIN
    3.7%
    POD
    12.9%
    PTS
    50.3%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.50 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.81, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.65 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  8. 8Alexander Albon
    ALBAlexander Albon
    WilliamsWilliamsLOW
    WIN
    3.3%
    POD
    12.0%
    PTS
    49.5%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.55 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.19, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.65 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  9. 9Isack Hadjar
    HADIsack Hadjar
    Racing BullsRacing BullsLOW
    WIN
    3.0%
    POD
    11.5%
    PTS
    57.1%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.46 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.74, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.67 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

  10. 10Nico Hulkenberg
    HULNico Hulkenberg
    Kick SauberKick SauberLOW
    WIN
    2.9%
    POD
    9.8%
    PTS
    53.3%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.58

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.46 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.07

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.58, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.35

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.60 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

Most-likely podium combinations

approximate · 1st-2nd-3rd
  1. 1
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3LEC
    4.14%
  2. 2
    P1VER·P2LEC·P3RUS
    3.94%
  3. 3
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3GAS
    2.30%
  4. 4
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3ALO
    2.22%
  5. 5
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3NOR
    2.10%
  6. 6
    P1LEC·P2VER·P3RUS
    1.96%
  7. 7
    P1VER·P2LEC·P3GAS
    1.94%
  8. 8
    P1RUS·P2VER·P3LEC
    1.89%
  9. 9
    P1VER·P2GAS·P3RUS
    1.88%
  10. 10
    P1VER·P2LEC·P3ALO
    1.87%

Methodology

Probabilities come from a layered ensemble: historical base rates per circuit, current constructor form (rolling 6 races), qualifying outcome, and a weather adjustment. Confidence intervals are 80% credible bands from the win-share posterior. See 0.3.0 for the active weights.