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F1

Barcelona Grand Prix

Round 7 · 2026
Barcelona
v 0.3.007 Jun 2026, 16:14 UTC
Based onHistoryConstructor formRegulations
Max Verstappen is the model's pick at 26.9% (80% CI 26.1–27.7%) for Barcelona Grand Prix.

Top 10 drivers

bars are win / podium / points probabilitiesWeekend analytics →
  1. 1Max Verstappen
    VERMax Verstappen
    Red Bull RacingRed Bull RacingLOW
    WIN
    26.9%
    POD
    61.2%
    PTS
    84.8%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 1.00 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.76, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.68 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

  2. 2George Russell
    RUSGeorge Russell
    MercedesMercedesLOW
    WIN
    20.5%
    POD
    53.5%
    PTS
    77.9%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.91 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.64 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.84, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.86 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 23.9% (team × circuit).

  3. 3Charles Leclerc
    LECCharles Leclerc
    FerrariFerrariLOW
    WIN
    10.0%
    POD
    30.9%
    PTS
    69.4%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.73 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.65 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.75, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.86 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 29.4% (team × circuit).

  4. 4Kimi Antonelli
    ANTKimi Antonelli
    MercedesMercedesLOW
    WIN
    9.3%
    POD
    30.6%
    PTS
    74.0%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.91 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.26 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.11, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.86 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 23.9% (team × circuit).

  5. 5Pierre Gasly
    GASPierre Gasly
    AlpineAlpineLOW
    WIN
    4.8%
    POD
    16.5%
    PTS
    54.2%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.60 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.58, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.62 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  6. 6Lewis Hamilton
    HAMLewis Hamilton
    FerrariFerrariLOW
    WIN
    4.8%
    POD
    17.9%
    PTS
    63.9%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.73 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.23 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.82, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.86 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 29.4% (team × circuit).

  7. 7Lando Norris
    NORLando Norris
    McLarenMcLarenLOW
    WIN
    3.9%
    POD
    12.1%
    PTS
    52.5%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.53 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.61 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.82, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.94 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  8. 8Oscar Piastri
    PIAOscar Piastri
    McLarenMcLarenLOW
    WIN
    2.6%
    POD
    10.3%
    PTS
    48.1%
    Why · 5 factors
    • Constructor recent formw 0.54

      Team points trend score 0.53 across the last 5 races.

    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.44 (1.0 = top of grid).

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.82, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.94 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.20

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 40.0% (team × circuit).

  9. 9Nico Hulkenberg
    HULNico Hulkenberg
    Kick SauberKick SauberLOW
    WIN
    2.4%
    POD
    8.6%
    PTS
    53.9%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.46 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.62, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.68 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

  10. 10Isack Hadjar
    HADIsack Hadjar
    Racing BullsRacing BullsLOW
    WIN
    2.2%
    POD
    9.0%
    PTS
    56.5%
    Why · 4 factors
    • Driver skill (Elo)w 0.27

      Teammate-only Elo skill score 0.46 (1.0 = top of grid). Familiarity discount ×0.85.

    • Track history (time-weighted)w 0.03

      Recency-weighted finish score 0.68, 5-year window, 12-month half-life, reg-discounted ×0.24.

    • Chassis at this circuitw 0.16

      Constructor-lineage best-finish score 0.56 at this circuit across the last 5 seasons. Driver-agnostic — captures chassis-DNA fit independent of who drove.

    • DNF riskw 0.15

      Per-race DNF probability ≈ 15.0% (team × circuit).

Most-likely podium combinations

approximate · 1st-2nd-3rd
  1. 1
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3LEC
    3.10%
  2. 2
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3ANT
    3.07%
  3. 3
    P1RUS·P2VER·P3LEC
    2.57%
  4. 4
    P1RUS·P2VER·P3ANT
    2.55%
  5. 5
    P1VER·P2LEC·P3RUS
    2.51%
  6. 6
    P1VER·P2ANT·P3RUS
    2.48%
  7. 7
    P1RUS·P2LEC·P3VER
    1.96%
  8. 8
    P1RUS·P2ANT·P3VER
    1.93%
  9. 9
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3HAM
    1.80%
  10. 10
    P1VER·P2RUS·P3GAS
    1.66%

Methodology

Probabilities come from a layered ensemble: historical base rates per circuit, current constructor form (rolling 6 races), qualifying outcome, and a weather adjustment. Confidence intervals are 80% credible bands from the win-share posterior. See 0.3.0 for the active weights.